Strategies to Crush Microstakes Regulars
Hero had TT on the button. A tight player in the hijack raised to 3BB. The cutoff folded.
Hero looked at his pair of 10s and considered whether to 3-bet or just call. He looked at the blinds and saw that they were both loose passive players. These are types of players that you can stack when you hit a set.
Hero decided that, if he just calls, one or more of the loose players might call. However, if he 3-bets, there would be a high chance that everyone, including the tight pre-flop raiser will fold.
He decided to just call with his 10s. However, both blinds folded. Therefore, 2 players saw the flop. Let’s look at how hero should play the hand in 2 different situations.
We will examine what hero should do:
1. If villain c-bets on the flop
2. If villain checks on the flop.
Hero is In Position/Without the Lead/Dry Board
In a previous article, The Ultimate Guide to Getting a Tight Poker Player to fold his Showdown Value Hand, I looked at the same hand except hero had the lead.
There are differences, between a raiser and a caller, that you should take into account when deciding how many hands will fold to a bet. Villain is the pre-flop raiser in this hand. In the previous article, he was the caller.
When a player calls, you can usually take strong hands, such as AA and KK, out of his range. You would expect a player to 3-bet with these types of hands.
By contrast, when a player opens with a raise pre-flop, you don’t get this information. This is because hardly anyone open limps these days.
However, at microstakes, you can sometimes obtain another type of information from a pre-flop raiser. Some of these players have a pre-flop raising bet-size tell. They bet about 2.5 blinds with pocket pairs, while betting 3BB or more with premium pairs and AK/AQ. When they raise pre-flop with a smaller amount, you will get a lot of folds, when there is an ace or a king on the board. This is because, apart from 6 combos of sets, a range comprising medium and low pocket pairs, is folding. There would only be 6 combos of sets because, we are assuming that villain would have put in the big pre-flop raise with AA or KK.
For the purposes of this article, I will assume that there wasn’t a bet size tell pre-flop.
Scenario 1: Villain Bets on the Flop
When villain bets, hero should fold against a supertight NIT. He is not likely to be bluffing.
In contrast, a TAGfish player might c-bet his whole range. However, hero needs to know that this guy is c-betting his whole range to make continuing with the hand profitable. He can look his flop c-bet% to get this information.
Villain’s flop c-bet% was over around 75%. Villain’s bet size looked like a standard bet size. Therefore, hero decided to continue with the hand.
However, if hero wants to win the pot, he may have to turn his hand into a bluff. For current purposes, we will assume that villain has a pre-flop raising range of at least AK and all pocket pairs.
There are two main strategies available to hero. The first is bluff-raising on the flop and the second is “floating”. The strategy of calling a flop bet and betting on the turn, after villain checks, is called “floating”. A typical size flop bluff-raise needs to win about 58% of the time in order to break even.
If you want to know more about bluff-raising and floating, I have written a detailed article titled Is it Best to Bluff-raise or Float on the Flop in NL Texas Holdem?
Villain’s Range
So, let’s examine villain’s range. We will assume that he has a tight range, which consists of AA-22/AK-AQ.
On the flop, these can be broken down into:
Strong Hands (27 combos) – sets (9 combos), AK (12 combos), AA (6 combos)
Showdown Value Hands that Win or Tie (13 combos) – QQ-TT (13 combos)
Showdown Value Hands that Lose (6 combos) – 99 (6 combos)
Hands that Missed the Flop (46 combos) – 77-33 (30 combos) and AQ (16 combos)
What Happens if Hero Raises?
The 46 combos, that missed the flop, will fold to a raise. A raise will look strong to this player-type because he will put hero, on at least a king. If these combos fold, it stops them seeing a turn card. Other than that, there isn’t that much advantage getting these combos to fold. A small raise would get these to fold.
There are 2 advantages that hero should be looking for.
Firstly, he wants to get villain’s showdown value hands to fold.
Secondly, he wants to minimise amount of money that he loses to villain’s strong range.
The Bluff-Raise
A bluff-raise would get JJ-99 to fold. This makes up 13 extra combos that would fold. bringing the number of folds up to 59. Of these 13 extra combos, only JJ is winning against hero, while TT ties with hero. This brings the ratio of folds: combined calls and raises, to 59: 33.
In percentage terms, this means that villain should fold, at least, 64.1% of the time. The bluff-raise is already profitable. If villain folds QQ to a raise, this would mean that 70% of combos will fold.
When we bluff-raise, we usually need to bet more than the pot. If you try to bluff-raise and you don’t raise enough, you are likely to get called by villain’s showdown hand range. Although a large bluff-raise is sometimes necessary, it may not be here.
The problem with a large bluff-raise, is that we will be paying villain’s strong range too much money.
Floating the Flop
When you float on the flop, you will call the c-bet. Assuming that the turn card is not a queen, jack or 9, villain will bet again with sets (9 combinations) and AA (6 combinations).
That leaves AK (12 combos) and possibly QQ (6 combos) that might check-call. Your opponent will probably check-fold everything else.
For calculation purposes, we can exclude kings with weaker kickers, such as KQ, from our analysis. The reason is because AQ and AJ have been excluded from his range. These are stronger starting hands that miss the flop. As such, if villain has KQ in his range, he would also have AQ and AJ in his range as well. If we included these hands, this would push the ratio more in your favour because there are more combos of AQ and AJ than KQ. It is always better to underestimate your own advantage when you are considering a bluff.
Of the hands that check on the turn, only 18 combos (AK and QQ) will potentially call a turn bet and 43 will fold (JJ-99, 77-33).
TAGfish only double barrel when they are sure they are ahead. Therefore, you can fold if he bets. If he checks, he will now fold 70% of the time to a ⅔ pot turn bet. You should bet a bit more than ½ pot in order to try to get the folds from QQ combos. If villain folds QQ in this spot, you are getting a massive 80% folds.
When you consider, that villain might actually bet AK on the turn, floating is much cheaper against villain’s strong range. Compared to bluff-raising, floating reduces hero’s liability against villain’s sets and AA.
Even if villain decides to get tricky and check-raise with his strong hands, the floating line is almost the same price as raising on the flop. The only disadvantage with floating is that the turn card could hit villain’s hand. However, most of his combos that missed the flop are pocket pairs. As such, he usually only has two outs that he can hit.
Floating is always better than bluff-raising on a dry board against a villain who NEVER double barrels without a hand that is top pair or better and ALMOST ALWAYS barrels his strong hands on the turn
There are a lot of players at low stakes who display these two characteristics.
Let’s have a look at how the same hand could play out, if villain checks on the flop.
Scenario 2: Villain Checks on the Flop
When villain checks, you don’t have any real information whether or not he has hit this flop. Many tight players do check-fold when they miss a flop.
Villain’s range will consist of missed flops, showdown value hands and strong hands. If villain has a strong hand, he won’t be too concerned about giving hero a free card on a dry flop.
If hero checks, it could lead to a problem with reading villain on later streets. Let’s say, hero checks and villain bets on the turn. Hero won’t know whether villain bet because he allowed the turn to check through or whether villain’s flop check was a tricky play with a strong hand.
So, against a standard non-aggressive player, it is probably best to bet on the flop. I won’t deal with playing against aggressive players in this article. However, when an aggressive player checks the lead away on the flop, it usually means that he is waiting to check-raise or that he has a showdown value hand. He will bet his strong hands and his hands that miss the flop.
The question is, how much does hero bet on the flop against a standard microstakes player, who isn’t particularly aggressive?
What are You trying to Achieve with Your Small Flop Bet?
This bet is the type of bet that Dan Harrington called a “probe bet” in the book Harrington on Holdem (Harrington and Robertie, 2004).
There are 3 aims for hero’s small bet.
The first aim is to get villain to raise with his premium hands.
The second aim is to get villain to fold his losing range or take bad value by calling.
The third aim is to get villain to call with his showdown value hands (QQ-99).
If hero gets to the turn, villain’s range will only consist of showdown value hands.
Most of these hands beat TT.
At this point, hero should barrel villain off his showdown value hand.
There are a couple of exceptions. If the turn card is a queen, QQ has made a set. However, JJ and TT will be scared because there will be 2 overcards on the board. Therefore, a small turn bet can get these to fold. If this occurs, hero’s odds will be good because there will only be 3 combos of QQ and 7 of JJ/TT combined.
If the turn card is a jack, there will be 3 combos of JJ and 7 off QQ/TT combined. However, it will take a big bet to get QQ to fold. It’s still worth it. We’re assuming villain isn’t a calling station here.
The other turn card that can be a concern is a 9. However, there will still be 12 combos of QQ and JJ combined versus 3 combos of 99. If you have picked a tight opponent, he will fold to a bet on the turn or another bet on the river.
If villain shows strength at any point in the hand, hero should fold. At microstakes, weakness followed by strength, almost always equals strength.
When the Probe Bet Gets Raised
The problem with the probe bet is that, if you bet too small, even some passive villains will raise. In this situation, you might not get the information that you are looking for. Therefore, you have to look at the type of player that you are up against.
If villain raises, you should look at the size of the raise. If it is small, villain may be bluffing, in which case, you can call.
A lot of microstakes players bluff too small on the flop. This can give the game away.
At microstakes, I can’t say what bet size is correct unless I have watched a player.
Generally, players don’t tend to raise a ½ pot bet unless that have a real hand. Ideally, you want to bet below ½ pot.
The tighter your opponent, the less you can bet. Even ¼ pot bet doesn’t give pocket pairs the odds to call.
Final Comment
If you can get opponents to fold their better hands, you will be crushing it.
Often, you will hear players say that they hate being dealt JJ. I used to feel that way myself.
The only way to start liking these types of hands, is to plan your strategy and memorise it. That way, when you get to the poker table, you are just an actor reciting your lines.