Hero is in Position/Without the Lead/Dry Board
In this hand, a loose passive player raised 3BB from is UTG+1. Hero called the bet with 9♥9♠ from the button. The flop comes up K♥8♦2♠. Therefore, the loose passive player has the lead in the hand and hero is in position.
In the Reference Hand 9, I went through the numbers on how a calling station’s range improves, once he has called a bet. If you haven’t read Reference Hand 9, you should read it before reading this article.
I also explained in Reference Hand 9 that, when we have a showdown value hand, we want to get to showdown as cheaply as possible.
Villain’s Range
Loose passive players often have wide starting hand ranges. If you bet a pot-sized bet on a dry flop, over 50% of these starting hands will fold. I’m assuming here that, a pot-sized bet will get villain will fold any unmade hand, backdoor draws and pairs below the middle card on the board. I am also assuming that villain will still call with middle pair and pocket pairs below top pair.
Therefore, this betting the pot on a dry flop can make you a profit. However, this is not the most profitable strategy. Checking the hand down is the most profitable strategy when you have a weak showdown value hand.
In fact, the less you bet, the more money you will make from these hands. You should note that, there is a difference between having 99 on a king-high flop, compared to having QQ. When you have QQ, you may realise that villain doesn’t have a king, at some point in the betting. Therefore, you can bet QQ for value.
However, when villain doesn’t want to put money into the pot, he could have a pocket pair that is higher than a 9 and lower than a king. Therefore, you can’t really bet 99 for value. You can only bet 99 to get folds.
I will look at 2 situations. The first is where villain checks on the flop and the second is where villain c-bets on the flop.
Flop: Villain Checks
If villain checks on the flop, we should just check back. Your ideal plan should be to check the hand down to showdown. A pair of 9s is the weakest pocket pair below top pair on this flop.
What do you do if villain bets the turn, just because you checked?
Again, I have written about how you deal with such situations in Reference Hand 9. Basically, if the bet doesn’t look unusually large, you should call. If villain bets again on the river, you should fold. A passive player doesn’t usually bet 2 streets as a bluff.
I will move on to when villain c-bets.
Flop: Villain Bets
If you don’t have the lead, you should fold to any bet that is greater than ½ of the pot. This is how I would play against an unknown calling station. The majority of these players don’t always c-bet. However, there are some that do.
You need to have watched this player for several pieces of information. These include
1. Does villain always c-bet in a head-up pot? If the answer to this question is no, you should fold.
2. Does villain have a flop bet size tell? If the answer to this question is “yes”, you should know if villain has missed the flop or hit it weakly.
3. If his flop bet is called, does he usually bet on the turn? If the answer to this question is “yes”, you should fold. Calling stations do not tend to barrel unless they have a strong hand.
4. If the turn checks through, does villain usually bet on the river? If the answer to this question is “no”, you should lean towards calling the flop bet. That is, unless the answer to question 3 is “yes”.
5. Does your opponent have a bet size tell on the river? What you want to find out is if you can differentiate between villain’s bet size for bluffs and for value.
Calling stations play a lot of hands. Therefore, there should be a lot of opportunities to get reads on how your opponent plays. If you are not playing multiple tables, you should be able to get the answer to these questions.
The Flop
If villain bets ½ pot or less on the flop, you should assume that he is not particularly happy with the flop. As such, you should call and see what happens on the turn.
The Turn
If he bets again on the turn, you have to fold. As I have said, when a calling station barrels 2 streets, your 99 is almost always beaten.
If villain doesn’t bet on the turn, your strategy now is simply to get to showdown cheaply or fold.
If villain checks on the turn, you should check back. After checking back the flop and turn, you could end up facing a river bet. Unless you have this read, you won’t know whether villain is bluffing.
You can get around this by putting a small bet in on the turn. Usually, a small turn bet deters an opponent from bluffing on the river. If your opponent raises your turn bet or bets on the river, you have to fold.
However, weak players do not bluff with a balanced range. They either never bluff when they miss their hand or they always bluff when they miss their hand. If you see a weak player bluff once on the river, after the turn checks through, it probably means that he will always bluff when the turn checks through.
Look at the 30% range against 99.
Range 1. The 30% Range versus 99
What you can see is that our equity on the river is 59.243%. Villain’s equity is 40.757%. If villain bets on every river and we call, we will make a profit. That is assuming that villain’s bet size for bluffs is the same or more than his bet size for value hands.
In this situation, you might get a bet size tell because when the turn checks through, villain should know that he can only get thin value from his hand. Therefore, if your opponent is thinking, he might bet small with value hands and big with his bluffs.
Conclusion
Your aim should be to get to showdown as cheaply as possible.
If villain c-bets on the flop, you should call the bet (unless it looks unusually large or if villain doesn’t always c-bet). If he bets again on the turn, you should fold. If he doesn’t bet on the turn, you have a choice of betting or checking.
You should bet the turn if you are uncomfortable that you might face a difficult bet on the river. If villain calls and bets the river, he is almost never bluffing. In this case, you can fold.
If you think that you can bluff-catch, if villain bets the river, you should check back the turn.
If villain checks the flop, you should check back. If villain bets the turn, you should call unless the bet looks unusually large. If villain bets again on the river, you should fold. If he checks the river, you should check back.