How should play a weak showdown value hand, when you are in position and your loose-passive opponent c-bets on a wet flop?
If your opponent has a low c-bet%, this usually means that he has a decent hand. Therefore, you should fold. If your opponent has a high c-bet%, his whole range is potentially in play. This range is likely to be wide and most of this range will have missed the flop. In this spot, you should call the flop bet. If he bets again on the turn, you should fold. If villain checks the turn, you should bet the turn and check/fold the river.
In this example, the hi-jack is a loose passive player. He raised 3BB and hero just called in the cutoff with 9♦9♠. The flop comes up K♥8♠7♥. Therefore, the loose passive player has the lead in the hand and hero is in position.
Flop: Villain Bets
On the flop, you should generally just fold to a normal sized c-bet from a loose passive player.
Usually, loose passive players don’t have a high c-bet%. Therefore, I would fold to a c-bet. If your opponent is weak-tight, this is definitely a fold, as these players do not bluff often.
The exception to folding is if villain is an automatic c-bettor. If villain is entering pots with a 30% range or wider, we are ahead of more than 50% of this range.
Villain’s Range
The loose passive player could have any range here. The fact that the player raised doesn’t mean a lot. Opening the betting pre-flop is standard these days, even for weak players.
Range 1: Villain’s 30% Range
Therefore, against a player, who c-bets almost 100% of the time in heads-up pots, you should call on the flop. We will assume that villain bet 5BB into a 7.5BB pot and hero called. Therefore, the pot is now 17.5BB.
Although this hand might appear to be the same as Hand 13, when villain put in a small donk bet, there are differences. When villain puts in a small donk bet on the flop, this betting action narrows his range. However, when a player, with a high c-bet%, bets on the flop, his range isn’t narrowed yet.
His range gets narrowed by his action on the turn. However, it still won’t be the same range as in Hand 13.
If villain bets on the turn, we should fold. By definition, a passive player does not bluff on 2 streets in a row.
Therefore, we need to look at his range when he checks on the turn. To examine this situation in detail, we need to look at villain’s river range when we bet the turn and when we check the turn.
We also need to examine if there will be a difference in our turn play depending on the different turn cards that can land.
I will look at several types of turn card.
The Turn Card is a Low Non-Heart
We can take the stronger range out of villain’s 30% range. If he had a strong hand, he wouldn’t risk a allowing a free river card to come off.
If he checks on the turn, his range is narrowed to made hands that are weaker than top pair. It is unlikely that villain would check top pair on a board that is so draw heavy.
Range 2 shows the equity at showdown if we check on the turn.
Range 2: Villain’s 30% Range is Narrowed when he Checks on the Turn. We can take the better made hands (Sets, 2 pair, and AK) out of his range.
We need to compare this range with the range that shows our equity when we bet on the turn and our turn bet is called. Both ranges are narrowed by villain’s actions. However, they are narrowed in different ways.
Range 3 Villain’s 30% Range is Narrowed when He Check/Calls on the Turn. We can still take all of the strong made hands out of his range. We can also take the weak hands and combos that missed the flop, out of his range.
I have used a non-heart low card in Range 3.
Low cards can complete straight draws. If villain has hit a straight, he would be unlikely to check. That is, unless he has the flush draw as well. However, generally, when villain checks on a low card, it means that his range consists of weak made hands, draws and air hands.
I’ve left Kx in his range (apart from AK). He has probably been burnt in the past when he has showed down top pair without the best kicker. Therefore it is possible that villain would pot control with these combos.
We have 2 choices. We can bet the turn, or we can check the hand down. Betting the turn usually appeals more. This is because betting the turn usually prevents villains from bluffing on the river. Some villains see a turn check as weakness, which causes them to bluff on the river.
This is an important read to look for when observing players. Does villain allow his opponents to check the hand down? If so, does he allow opponents to do this with draws, weak a hands and air. This type of information will often help decide how to play against your opponent.
However, we will assume that we haven’t got any reads.
As you can see, it is close between betting the turn and checking the turn. In both cases, we fold to a bet on the river. However, the above screenshot assumes that villain never bluffs on the river. He is unlikely to bluff the river if we bet the turn. However, he may bluff the river when we check the turn.
How often does villain need to bluff on the river before it is correct to check the turn?
According to the calculator, when villain bluffs 55% of his losing hands and bets 50% of the pot, the correct decision is to Check the Turn and Call a River Bet. The assumes that villain will bet all of his winning hands and we will call. However, villain is not likely to bet all of his winning hands. For example, he isn’t likely bet his pocket pairs below top pair on the river, especially if the river card is a scare card. He may prefer to check these.
Therefore, the bluff amount required is probably an underestimate. I would Check the Turn and Call the river if I thought villain would bluff 50% of the time with his losing combos.
I tested a range of turn cards in the calculator. Table 1 shows the results.
Table 1: Results for Different Turn Cards in the Bet or Check Turn Calculator
It’s all Bet Turn and Check/Fold River apart from the low cards.
So, what’s the pattern? I can’t say exactly.
I could speculate that low hearts don’t block high card combos, whereas high hearts block a lot of the broadway suited hands. Low cards do not get villain to fold any of the pairs below top pair that are winning against a pair of 99s. In absolute terms, the when you bet the turn and villain calls, your percentage equity decreases more on a low turn card compared to any other turn card.
In any case, when the turn card is a low heart card, Check Turn and Check/Fold River only edges it over Bet Turn and Check/Fold River. It is close.
Therefore, you won’t go far wrong against a passive player, just betting the turn and check/folding on the river.
Here are Some Tips
Don’t call the river if the turn card is the A♥, a Q, or a J.
With a non-heart 10, villain needs to bluff the 100% the value of the pot 100% of the time for your decision to be Check Turn and Check/Call River.
Against a low heart, if villain bluffs 75% of the time on the river, you should Check Turn and Check/Call River.
Even when the decision is Check Turn and Check/Call River, there isn’t much between this play and Bet Turn and Check/Fold River.