Hero is Out of Position/With the Lead/Wet Board
In this hand, hero opened the pre-flop betting with his pair of 9s. He raised to 3BB and the button called.
The flop came up K♥8♦7♥. So, hero is out of position with a weak showdown value hand against the button. Since the button just called the pre-flop raise and didn’t 3-bet, we are probably not looking at an aggressive player.
Villain’s Range
In Reference Hand 4, the position was similar. In that example, I gave villain a range of AK/AQ and QQ-99. I assumed that villain would 3-bet with AA and KK.
In this example, I will assume that this villain isn’t quite as tight. Let’s say that I have seen this villain 3-bet with AK and QQ. Therefore, I will take these hands out of his range. I will assume that he will call with KQ and AJ. So, we are left with the following range.
Only 35.5% of villain’s range can call a flop bet. If you are following my series of Reference Hands, I hope you are starting to see how awful playing low pocket pairs is. They are only good against loose players, who will stack off with top pair.
Flop: Hero Bets
If you check and villain bets, you will have to give up on this hand. It will be too difficult to play without the lead. Having the lead will help put villain on a range and therefore, you have more information on which to make decisions.
However, we need to plan ahead.
Do we want to only bet on the flop or do we want to bet on the flop and turn?
Let’s start by looking at villain’s raising, calling and folding ranges.
Villain will probably raise a small bet with his 6 combos of sets (88, 77). He may raise with A♥Q♥ and A♥J♥. That’s another 2 combos, bringing his raising range up to 8 combos.
He will call with KQ (12 combos) one bet with JJ-99, which is 13 combos.
He will fold with 66-22, which is 30 combos. He will also fold 15 combos of AJ and 15 combos of AQ. This adds up to 60 combos folding.
Let’s look at the Barrel Calculator.
Firstly, we will look at betting 50% of the pot on the flop and turn.
If we bet 50% of the pot on the flop and turn, we make 3.99BB on average.
I think this is an overestimate. If the turn card is a heart, hands like JJ and TT with a heart might call a 50% turn bet. In addition, if the turn card is a J or a T, some of villain’s combos may have become sets. In any case, 50% may not be a big enough bet to get JJ or TT to fold on the turn. If the turn card isn’t a heart, villain may suspect that a ½ pot bet means that we don’t have a strong hand and that we are on a draw.
So, let’s look at overbetting on the flop.
When we overbet the pot, I would expect all the pocket pairs that haven’t made a set to fold. This would include JJ-99. We make slightly less by overbetting the pot.
However, I think this is an underestimate. Villain might also fold A♥Q♥ or A♥J♥ to an overbet. In his mind, he is not getting the correct odds to draw for his flush. In addition, KQ might fold. Villain hasn’t got the best kicker with his king. Therefore, he may fear that we have AK.
What if Villain Calls our Flop Overbet?
We want to overbet the pot on the flop and get the hand over one way or another.
If villain calls, we do have a backdoor draw and 2 outs to make a set. If we hit a set, we can play aggressively.
However, if a 6 or a T gives us an open ended straight draw, we shouldn’t bet. We will probably lose the pot by not betting. However, villain’s range that calls an overbet on the flop, will probably be too strong for us to bet the turn. His range will consist of KQ, nut flush draws and sets.
We could probably remove sets from his range. If villain had a set, I would expect him to re-raise a big bet on the flop. That would leave KQ and nut flush draws.
We have 28.9% equity if we have an open-ended straight draw. I checked that up on Flopzilla. A ½ pot bet means that we are required to win 33% of the time. It’s not enough.
The problem is that we may not get enough implied odds when we win. The straight will look obvious. If a heart gives us a straight, villain won’t call a bet unless he has the nut flush.
In addition, we may not even win the pot when we are winning. Some of the time, our 99 will be beating villain’s busted draws. However, if we bet the turn and check the river, villain will bet on the river with KQ and with his busted draws. The 12 combos of KQ outnumber the 2 combos of potentially busted draws. Therefore, we couldn’t call a river bet.
Therefore, bet the flop and check/fold the turn unless the turn card gives you a set.