Hero is Out of Position/Without the Lead/Wet Board
In this hand, hero is out of position without the lead and the board is wet. I have pointed out that you shouldn’t get into the position of just calling out of position. That is, unless you have a plan. The button is likely to be stealing with a wide range.
Villain’s Range
Ranges vary from the button steal position. Some buttons try and steal 100% of the time. I will start by looking at how the 100% range does on this wet flop.
In the above screenshot from Flopzilla, you can see that 56.6% of combos hit the flop in some way. Therefore, we would expect to get 43.3% folds from this range. However, I have included all the weak combos, such as combos that give villain a weak pair, middle pair, gutshots and backdoor draws.
In reality, most villains will fold all those combos, if you bet big enough. I want to compare how we do when we donk bet small to when we donk bet big. A small donk bet will give us the 43.3% folds that have completely missed the flop. How many folds will we get for a large donk bet?
The screenshot below shows a second scenario, where villain folds all of the weak combos from the 100% range.
As you can see, villain is now folding 77.8% of his combos. Not all villain’s have a 100% steal perecentage. Therefore, I have compiled a table, with the percentage of folds we get against various ranges that villain might play. The numbers in the Table apply to this specific flop. Different flops will give different results.
Table 1. Percentage of Folds from Villain’s Ranges
I just chose random flops that Flopzilla gave me for each percentage range.
Flop: Hero Donk Bets
We are thinking of donk betting here. We will be turning our hand into a bluff. However, when you are out of position, it is very difficult to realise your equity with a showdown value hand, even when you are ahead.
A Small Donk Bet is a Suicide Bet
Look at the right hand column of the table, where villain calls with all the weak stuff. You can see that, apart from the 100% range, villian will fold 33.3% of the time or less.
Therefore, a small donk bet is a suicide bet. We have a backdoor straight draw ourselves, which might allow us to bet again on the turn. However, I wouldn’t be crazy about relying on 6 turn cards where we feel comfortable barreling. I say 6 turn cards (as opposed to 8) because if the turn card is the 6♥ or T♥, you are not going to feel great about barreling. If villain calls, you will be wondering if he is slowplaying a flush or if he is drawing to a single high heart. If a heart doesn’t fall on the river, how are you going to play the river? It’s a horrible scenario.
Donk Bet Big or Go Home
If we donk bet the size of the pot, we need to win 50% of the time. If a pot sized donk bet just gets your opponent to fold his backdoor draws and pairs below middle pair, we will be getting the percentage of folds shown in the fourth column from the left of the table. This means that we will be getting at least 50% folds against all of villain’s potential ranges, apart from the 10% range.
We will probably get more. I am just giving you those numbers from an ultra-pessimist point of view.
The guy, who plays the 10% range, is a tight player. Most psople will attempt to steal well over 10% of the time. Therefore, this player will probably fold every combo apart from top pair or better to a pot sized donk bet. This would put him above 50% folds, as shown in the second column from the left of the table.
If villain calls your donk bet, you are done with the hand, unless the turn card gives you a set. If you hit a straight draw, you should probably give up. Villain will have folded most of his weak combos on the flop because you bet the pot.
Therefore, you probably won’t have much fold equity on the turn.
Conclusion
Playing a showdown value hand out of position sucks. Betting the pot on the flop should get you the folds that you deserve.
At microstakes, a pot-sized flop bet often means that a player has hit a set and want to get the money into the pot. Therefore, you should get more folds than you expect.
The best part of this strategy, is that you don’t have to worry about how wide or narrow villain’s range is. You are getting over 50% folds against all ranges!