Hero is in Position/With the Lead/Dry board

In the next batch of reference hands, I will be dealing with loose passive players.  There are many types of passive players.  There are those, who are passive in every way.  Then, there are those, who will bet just because you checked.  Some will also bluff rivers when they miss their draw.

There are some, who are loose before and after the flop.  You get other combinations of loose players.  The weak-tight player is loose pre-flop.  He is tight post-flop with made hands, such as pairs below top pair.  However, he is loose post-flop when he has a draw.

Because these players have different ways of playing, we need to have different ways of exploiting each of these players. 

When we have a weak showdown value hand, we are generally ahead of our opponent on the flop.  If we bet big on the flop, we will usually get over 50% folds from a wide range. However, when villain calls, his range will usually be stronger than yours for the remainder of the hand.

Flop: Villain Checks

Below, you will see a 30% starting hand range.  This is a screenshot from Flopzilla.  The 63.2% of hands that pass through the filters, are hands that a loose post-flop villain might call if you bet small.

Range 1. The 30% Starting Hand Range

I’ve kept AA and KK in villain’s range because a lot of loose passive players just call with these hands.  They like tricking people. 

Let’s look at how many folds you would get, if you bet big on the flop.

Range 2. On This Dry King-High Flop, 70% of Villain’s Range is Weaker than a Pocket Pair Below top Pair

In the above screenshot, villain folds middle pair and weak pairs.  I would assume that, it would take a pot-sized bet to get the job done.

Let’s look what villain is left with after calling.

Range 3. Villain’s Flop Calling Range is Strong on a Dry Board

Every combo beats our showdown value hand, apart from the combo that ties.  This is why, it is dangerous to mindlessly barrel a calling station.

Range 1 shows that we are a 59.243% favourite against villain’s range on the flop. 

Let’s first look at how much we win, when we bet the pot on the flop and get a load of folds.

By betting the pot on the flop, we win 2.66BB/hand.

Now, let’s look what happens if we could just check the hand to showdown.   We would win the pot 59.243% of the time and lose 40.757%.  We’ll forget tied hands. 

On average, we would win 3.85BB if we could check every hand down (ie 59.243% of 6.5BB). 

This means that your perfect opponent, when you have a weak showdown value hand, is a player, who never bets.

It also means that we want to put as little money into the pot as possible.

Line Number 1:  Simply try to Check the Hand Down

If you have a cooperative calling station, you might be able to just check the hand down.  If he allows you to do this, you could go for a thin value bet on the river when you have a better showdown value hand.  For example, if you were holding QQ or JJ, you could go for thin value.  However, you shouldn’t go for thin value with 99 because it is the lowest showdown value hand. 

When you try to check the hand down, villain might bet on the river.  This might be because you checked twice.  I would fold the first time that he does this.  If I think that he may be bluffing, I would use the same line when I have top pair and call on the river.   It might not be the best way to play top pair.  However, it may be worth using these hands to get general information about your opponent’s betting patterns.   

Line Number 2:  You try to check down the hand.  However, villain bets the turn. 

It may be because you checked back the flop.  You should call the turn bet.

Therefore, the line is:

Flop

Villain:  Checks

Hero:  Checks

Turn

Villain: Bets

Hero:  Calls

River

Villain: Checks

Hero:  Checks

It’s unlikely that a passive villain will bet the turn and the river if he hasn’t got you beaten.  If he starts betting the turn and river more often than you think is likely that he has you beaten, you will have to call him down.  Remember, his range isn’t narrowed because you haven’t bet.  Therefore, he has a lot of junk in his range.

Bet Size Tells

Try to find bet size tells between the calling station’s bluffs and bets for value.  Some of them bet bigger with bluffs than they do for value.  They know that a bluff needs to scare their opponent.

If All Else Fails, Just bet Big on the Flop

As I explained earlier, you should get enough folds to make a profit by betting the pot on the flop. 

So, we’ve looked at how to play the hand against a calling station, when he checks.

What if he bets?

Flop:  Villain Donk bets (Small)

I have written an article called “The Problem with Facing a Small Donk Bet on the Flop”.   This article was about tight players and how they may be using the small donk bet to trick you into raising when they have a strong hand.  Obviously, this isn’t always the case. 

Calling stations are capable of using the same strategy.  We want to get to showdown cheaply.  Therefore, you should just call the small donk bet.  If he bets bigger on the turn, you should usually fold.

I know what you’re thinking.  Couldn’t the calling station be bluffing?  If he is bluffing, you would have noticed this betting pattern earlier.  He can’t have a strong hand all the time.  This is especially the case when a player enters the pot with a wide range.  Therefore, if you see this betting pattern frequently, you should suspect that he is bluffing. 

If you think that he is bluffing, you could min-raise his flop donk bet.  If he just calls, it means that he probably is bluffing.  If he checks the turn, it usually means that he has a weak hand.  I would just check back the turn and river.  If villain, bets on the river, this could be because you checked the turn. 

You have to look at the board.  He didn’t re-raise you when you raised him on the flop.  This means that he didn’t have much on the flop.  Could he have hit a second pair on the turn or the river?  You have to think about the turn card even if villain checked the turn.  He could have checked because he wanted to check-raise you.

It’s a difficult problem.  Whatever you do, you will be right sometimes and wrong sometimes.  What I do in these situations, is ask myself if I have seen villain use this betting pattern before.  If the answer is “no”, he probably has a strong hand.

If the answer is “yes”, I would figure that my opponent may be bluffing.  As I’ve said, we don’t get strong hands as often as we get weak hands.  A player, who plays a wide range, will have weak hands most of the time.  Therefore, if he is using the same betting pattern to win hands, it means that he is very lucky or that he is bluffing.

Flop:  Villain Donk bets (Big)

If villain donk bets big on this flop, you should fold.  A passive player has at least a king when he donk bets big.  Usually, you can put him on 2 pair or better. 

Conclusion

It takes a lot more thought to play a loose passive player than most people think.  Some of them use sneaky strategies to get opponents to barrel when they have a strong hand.  It’ definitely not a matter of just being aggressive.  You have to read these players in the same way that you would read any other player.

To summarise, the ideal situation is to check the hand down. You need a cooperative villain to be able to do this.

If villain bets the turn, you should call. If he then bets the river, you should fold.

If you can’t find an easy way to win these post, you can just bet big on the flop. This is because villain’s range (on average) is weak on the flop.