Crushing Poker Players Who Bluff Busted Draws
The types of player, who play a lot of draws are showdown monkeys, calling stations and weak-tight players.
NITs don’t have many draws in their range. The standard NIT range is AK, AQ and pocket pairs. There are only 2 combos in that that range (AKs and AQs) that can flop a draw.
TAGs and LAGs play some draws. However, they tend to bet them aggressively.
In this article, I will talk about exploiting passive players, who bet on the river with busted draws.
Identifying Players, who Bluff with Busted Draws
Using HUD Statistics
The first thing you need to do is identify players, who bluff with busted draws on the river. On your HUD, you should examine your opponent’s Bet River% and VP%.
What you are looking for is an opponent who enters a lot of pots (which is reflected by a high VP%), together with a high Bet River.
The idea is that, an opponent, who plays a lot of pots is unlikely to have a substantial amount of strong hands on the river. This is because the wider a player’s starting hand range, the less strong hands that he will have at showdown.
Therefore, when your HUD displays a combination of a high VP% and Bet River% on a player, you should assume that he is bluffing a lot.
Using Observation
Another method to figure out, whether a player bluffs a lot on the river, is by noticing a hand in which he has bluffed.
We are talking about players, who chase draws passively here. These types of players do not tend to adjust their play. As such, if you observe a hand in which a passive player has attempted to bluff on the river with a busted draw, you are usually safe to assume that this is one of his tendencies.
Show Weakness to Trigger the Bluff
It’s important to be aware that, you have to have shown weakness to trigger the bluff. If you haven’t shown weakness and your passive opponent raises on the river, he probably has 2 pair or better.
Hand Example 1: Passive Player is not Bluffing on the River
For example, hero has A♣K♦. He raises pre-flop from early position and a passive player calls on the button.
Pre-flop (Pot = 1.5BB): Players have 100BB stacks. Hero (Button) is dealt A♠K♥.
Hero (UTG+1): Raises 4BB
Passive Player (Button): Calls 4BB
Flop (Pot = 9.5BB): A♥T♠2♥
Hero (UTG+1): Bets 5.5 BB
Passive Player (Button): Calls 5.5BB
Turn (Pot = 20.5BB): 3♦
Hero (UTG+1): Bets 15BB
Passive Player (Button): Calls 15BB
River (Pot = 50.5BB): 7♣
Hero (UTG+1): Bets 30BB
Passive Player (Button): Raises 60BB
Hero (UTG+1): ?
In the above hand, hero has raised pre-flop and bet on all 3 post-flop streets. On the river, the passive player raises. It’s not a huge raise relative to what is in the pot. However, against this type of player, hero should fold.
You might think that hero has great odds to call. However, the majority of passive players have zero percent bluffs in their range in this situation. He is very unlikely to raise, with an ace and a weak kicker. In addition, the size of the raise suggests that the passive player wants to be called.
It’s a case of, when a passive player shows strength, in response to an opponent’s strength, he will usually have 2 pair or better.
Let’s look at a couple of hands, where hero shows weakness and hence, could be inducing a bluff.
Hand Example 2: Passive Player Raises on the Flop and Checks the Turn
Pre-flop (Pot = 1.5BB): Players have 100BB stacks. Hero (Button) is dealt A♠K♥.
Hero (UTG+1): Raises 4BB
Passive Player (Button): Calls 4BB
Flop (Pot = 9.5BB): A♥T♠2♥
Hero (UTG+1): Bets 5.5 BB
Passive Player (Button): Raises 15 BB
Hero (UTG+1): Calls 9.5BB
Turn (Pot = 39.5BB): 3♦
Hero (UTG+1): Checks
Passive Player (Button): Checks
River (Pot = 39.5BB): 7♣
Hero (UTG+1):?
In Hand Example 2, the passive player uses the “free card play”. I know most people reading this know what the free card play is. But for those, who don’t, the free card play works as follows.
In this hand, hero raises pre-flop with A♣K♦. A passive player on the button calls. The flop is A♥T♠2♥. Hero bets and the calling station raises. In this situation, the calling station could have a strong made hand or he could be on a draw.
Hero calls the raise. The flop raise induces hero to check on the turn. The passive checks back. This is the free card play. There are 2 ideas behind the free card play
By raising on the flop, the player on a draw might get folds without hitting his draw
If he is called, he may see both the turn and river card for the price of the flop raise
When a weak player doesn’t bet on the turn, hero should suspect that his opponent does is on a draw. When the river bricks, hero should just check if he is playing a player who bluffs on the river with busted draws. You might think that a player wouldn’t bluff in this spot. It is kind of obvious that he was on a draw. However, you will often find that when you check twice, bluffers can’t resist bluffing.
If hero was playing against a player who doesn’t bluff rivers with busted draws, he should just put in a small bet on the river. The idea here is to get a call from a player with a weak pair and a busted flush draw (eg J♥T♥).
Hand Example 3: Hero shows Weakness by Checking on the Turn
Pre-flop (Pot = 1.5BB): Players have 100BB stacks. Hero (Button) is dealt A♠T♠.
Passive Player (MP): Raises 2 BB
Hero (Button): Raises 6BB
Passive Player (MP): Calls 4 BB
Flop (Pot = 13.5BB): A♥Q♠2♥
Passive Player (MP): Checks
Hero (Button): Bets 7.5 BB
Passive Player (MP): Calls 7.5 BB
Turn (Pot = 28.5.5BB): 6♦
Passive Player (MP): Checks
Hero (Button): Checks
River (Pot = 28.5BB): 7♣
Passive Player (MP): Bets 20 BB
Hero (Button): Calls 20 BB
In Hand Example 3, hero has shown weakness by checking on the turn. He hasn’t really shown weakness but in the eyes of an unskilled opponent, any check shows weakness.
Hero’s check on the turn is a good line for pot control and it does well against villain’s range.
Pot Control
Loose passive villains play a lot of Ax hands. Hero doesn’t know whether he is ahead or behind these hands. Villain could have a better kicker. He could also have 2 pair and be waiting to check-raise on the turn. If villain has 2 pair with A2, checking back the turn gives hero a chance to catch a 10 on the river.
A passive player will never fold an ace. Let’s say that the passive player plays every single Ax hand. If we exclude AA, hero is only about a 54% favourite to be ahead of this range on this flop.
If you are thinking that if hero is ahead, he should be putting money into the pot, you are wrong.
When your advantage is so small, you have to look at how other parts of villain’s range would play out. This includes Qx and draws.
Qx Hands
Although passive villains vary in how far they take their second pairs, most passive players will probably fold his Qx to a bet on the turn. He will be scared of the Ace on the flop. In addition, this is a 3-bet pot. Therefore, a bet on the turn will look big and scary.
If hero checks back the turn, the passive villain will suspect that hero doesn’t have an ace. Therefore, on the river, the passive player will believe that his Qx has a chance of being ahead. He will usually either put in a defensive bet in on the river or check-call.
Therefore, by checking back the turn, hero is more likely to get an extra bet from the Qx range.
Draws
The draw will complete on the river around 20% of the time. Therefore, by betting on the turn, hero will win his bet 80% of the time and lose his bet 20% of the time.
However, this villain bets on the river with busted draws. If hero checks back turn and the draw doesn’t complete, villain will bet and hero will call.
If the draw does complete, villain will bet. If the bet is sized defensively, hero can call. If the bet is large, hero can fold. and hero can fold.
If hero’s read that villain bluffs busted draws on the river is correct, he should win money when the draw misses and avoid losing money when the draw completes.
Hero should not be worried about getting bluffed, when a 3rd heart falls on the river. Villain’s range falls into 2 categories: made hands and draws.
If villain has a made hand, he will be scared when he sees the 3rd heart. Therefore, on the river, he will either check or bet defensively. As hero checked back the turn, villain will believe his weak made hand range is ahead. He has no reason to turn a made hand into a bluff.
Comment
You make money from river bluffers by feigning weakness on the turn and the river. This is not a complete list of ways in which you can show weakness to induce a bluff.
You should avoid using exactly the same line twice in a row. If you induce a bluff using a particular line, villain will remember this for a while. Therefore, you have to be creative and show weakness in different ways.