Floating versus Bluff-raising
You are in position and you miss the flop or hit it weakly,
The situation: You are in a microstakes (10-25NL) cash game. You are heads-up on the flop. Villain raised pre-flop and we (hero) called. We will not discuss whether we should have 3-bet pre-flop or just called here.
We will simply examine the position from the flop onwards. So, villain has the lead and c-bets $5 on the flop.
You can steal pots with air hands and draws by bluff-raising or floating. However, I will give us a weak showdown value hand in these examples. The hand is a pair of 9s. We see a king-high flop. Therefore, we have a hand could be the best hand. However, we are not sure about how strong it is on a king high flop.
In this article, I will explain what floating and bluff-raising are and when to use these strategies.
A. Not All Showdown Value Hands Are Created Equal
When deciding how to play a hand, we have to look at the strength of our hand.
A showdown value hand is a hand that you would like to get to showdown as cheaply as possible.
Showdown value hands come in various strengths.
Figure 1 Weak Pair Below Top Pair on the Flop
There are 4 showdown value hands on this flop and in this situation. They are QQ, JJ, TT and 99. Any pair below this range is a weak pair. Within this range, a pair of 9s on a king-high flop is at the bottom of the showdown value range.
Therefore, if villain also has a showdown value hand, your 99 is beaten.
The stronger your showdown value hand, the less you should want to turn you hand into a bluff.
For example, if you had QQ on the above flop, you should lean more towards just calling the flop bet and trying to get the hand to showdown. This is because, if you hold QQ, you only have to worry about one turn overcard, which is the Ace.
With 99, any turn or river card that is a A, Q, J or T will be a scare card. Therefore, you should lean more towards turning your hand into a bluff and bluff-raising.
A raise may get stronger hands, such as QQ and JJ to fold. In addition, AQ will not see the turn card.
However, we also need to look consider the player-type that we are up against. Within each category of player-type, we also need to take our reads on individual players into consideration.
B. Bluff-Raising versus Floating
There are 3 main strategies available to you when you have a showdown value hand. The first is bluff-raising on the flop.
1. Bluff-Raising on the Flop.
In this case, the flop betting action goes:
Flop (Pot = $7.50)
Villain: Bets $5
Hero: Raises $17.50
Villain: Folds or Calls $12.50
Total Cost of the Bluff = $17.50
Total Gain (if bluff works) = $12.50
The formula for working out the odds that we need to make the bluff profitable is:
Risk/(Risk + Gain)
Therefore, we need 58.3% folds for the bluff to break even. At this stage, you might be wondering why we are overbetting the pot with our raise. The reason is that, if we just raised to the size of the pot, villain would be getting easy pot odds to call.
We would be betting $12.50, which would make the size of the pot $25. Villain would just have to call $7.50 to stay in the hand.
2. Float the Flop/Bet on the Turn, after Villain Checks to You.
This means that you call the flop bet. On the turn, if villain checks to you, you bet and hope he folds. So, the betting action here would be:
Flop (Pot = $7.50)
Villain: Bets $5
Hero: Calls $5
Turn (Pot = $17.50)
Villain: Checks
Hero: Bets $12.50
Villain: ?
When we take this line, we want villain to fold. In this case, we risked $5 on the flop and $12.50 on the turn to attempt to win the $12.50 that was in the pot, when we started putting money into the pot on the flop.
If we use the Risk/(Risk + Gain) formula, we need to get 58.3% folds to break even.
Comparison of Bluff-Raising versus Floating so far
There is the problem that villain sees the turn card when we float. In addition, there are a lot of overcards that might scare a pair of 9s. However, some will scare villain as well.
3. Float on the flop/Check back the Turn if Villain Checks
If villain checks on the river, you can check back unless the river card is a 10. If villain has you beaten, he is unlikely to fold to a bet on the river. He might fold with JJ. However, since you didn’t bet on the turn, villain will suspect that you don’t have a king.
The betting line for this strategy is as follows
Flop (Pot = $7.50)
Villain: Bets $5
Hero: Calls $5
Turn (Pot = $17.50)
Villain: Checks
Hero: Checks
River (Pot = $17.50)
Villain: ?
We can work what our odds are if villain allows us to check the hand down on the river. Our risk is the $5 that we called on the flop. Our gain is the £12.50 that was in the pot at the time.
Therefore, we need to win 28.5% for this line to break even.
However, it’s not as simple as that.
Villain may bet on the river. The bet might be a bluff or we could be beaten. Therefore, if villain bets on the river, you have a tough decision. If you fold, you may be folding to your opponent’s weak hands. Remember, on the river, villain’s whole range will still be in play.
If you want to improve your poker, you need to figure out how to play difficult situations rather than avoid them.
C. When Should You Use Each Strategy?
So, let’s dive deeper into when each strategy is best. Let’s say that the turn card is the 7♦ and the river card is the 3♠.
1. When to Use the Bluff-Raise
Figure 2: Bluff-raising on the Flop
In the above screenshot from Flopzilla, you can see that we have a 50% of being in the lead in the hand on the flop. We need 58.3% equity to bluff-raise.
We will get an extra 14% if villain folds JJ, TT and 99 to a bluff-raise. This would take our win percentage up to 64%. If he folds QQ as well, we get another 6% folds, bringing our total extra folds up to 20%. Therefore, we would be up to 70% folds.
The Read for Bluff-Raising
We need our strategy to be based on the player, who we are up against. We should bluff-raise against double barrel bluffers. You have a choice of bluff-raising or calling them down.
The double barrel bluffers are trying to get opponents to fold their showdown value hands. When they have a strong showdown value hand themselves (such as QQ in the current hand), they will not be aggressive. They will try to get such a hand to showdown cheaply.
The kinds of hands, that they barrel with, are weak hands and strong hands. Therefore, it takes guts to call them down with a strong showdown value hand.
The Read for Calling a Double Barrel Bluffer Down with a Showdown Value Hand
Many players go for 2 streets of value, when they have top pair/top kicker. If you see an aggressive player bet the flop and check/call the turn with top pair/top kicker, this is an important read.
This means that he doesn’t barrel the flop and turn with top pair.
Therefore, when he does barrel both streets, he will have sets, semi-bluff and bluff hands. Since the chance of flopping a set is slim, it means that most of the time, this type of barreller doesn’t have a strong hand.
Of course, you can end up in an awkward situation, when a draw completes on the board. However, you can’t have everything.
Your Hand for Bluff-Raising
You can bluff-raise with draws. If you are called and you miss your draw on the turn, you can go for the free card play.
With showdown value hands, your decision should be based on the strength of your hand. If you have a strong showdown value hand, such as QQ, you could consider calling your opponent down. You won’t get better hands to fold by raising. However, if you have a weak showdown value hand, it is preferable to bluff-raise on the flop.
2. When to Use Float the Flop/Bet on the Turn
Figure 3: The Turn Card is the 7♦
If we just call on the flop and the turn card is the 7♦, we will be behind in the hand around 56% of the time. We will get 44% folds. However, we will need 58.3% folds to break even when we bet. Most villains would fold JJ-99 here, giving us an extra 14.6%. So, that would take us up to 58.4%.
Although we have scraped up to the required percentage to break even, we may be able to get this percentage even higher.
At microstakes, most villains will bet on the turn with their strong hands. For example, if villain has a set or AA, he won’t want to miss a street of equity. In addition, if the turn card puts a draw on the board, villain may bet to protect his hand from the draw or to give draws the wrong price to call. Even if he thinks that you don’t have the draw, villain may still bet. In this case, villain will worry that a third heart on the river will slow the betting down.
This means that you will get away from a lot of hands that are beating you. There are 18 combos out of a total of 89 combos that villain is likely to bet with on the turn. These include 12 combos of sets and 6 combos of AA. This is 20% of the villain’s combos.
Figure 4: Villain’s Turn Checking Range if he Bets Sets and Overpairs
It looks like villain can call a turn bet with 45.1% of his range. Therefore, we win with a turn bet 54.9% of the time. However, villain will usually fold JJ-99, which is 13 combos. This gives us another 18.3% of folds. So, now we are up to 73.2% of folds.
If villain also folds QQ, we are up to a whopping 81.7% folds.
This is a big deal because villain’s sets and AA only got a flop bet out of us.
The Read: You need a read on your opponent.
Avoid this line with turn check-raisers. Most microstakes players won’t check-raise with their strong hands in this situation. If you see a player, who does check-raise on the turn with strong hands when he has the lead in the hand, you shouldn’t take this line.
Remember, this is the player, who checks away the lead in order to check-rase. This is not the same as a player, who check-raises an opponent, who has the lead. In this situation, the player is expecting the opponent to bet, when he checks.
Avoid this line with double barrel bluffers. This should be obvious, as our intention is to fold to a turn bet.
The player you want to take this line against, is the regular, who c-Bets on the flop in 80% or more hands in 2-way pots. Then, he check-folds on the turn if he has missed the flop.
3. When to Float on the flop and Check back the Turn
Figure 5: The River Card is the 3♠
If we check behind villain on the river, our hand will be ahead 39.5% of the time. We only need 28.5% wins for this line to break even.
As I said, you have the problem of getting bluffed on the river when you take this line. You need a read to use this line. When you check the turn, most villains will suspect that you have a showdown value hand.
I will discuss how to deal with the potential bluff later. Let’s first look at a type of player, we might want to use this strategy against.
Loose Players
In the examples in this article, I showed a villain with quite a tight range. This range became stronger on the turn and the river.
Figure 6: Wide Ranges do Not Become Much Stronger on the Turn and River
Villain has a wider range in this example, compared to the example given above. You can see that this range is winning 35.5% on the flop. If you recall, the tighter range was winning 50% on the flop.
In the figure above, villain’s range does not improve much on the turn and river. The best strategy against this player should be based on the reads that I have outlined in this article.
If you put your opponent on a draw, allowing the hand to go to the river can work. Some players, who chase draws, won’t fold on the flop or turn.
When you have a showdown value hand, you don’t want to put too much money into the pot. Even if your opponent doesn’t hit his draw, he could still have overcards. In this situation, using the line of checking back the turn, can be a good strategy.
The Read: Bet Sizes
Many microstakes players have read that they should keep consistent bet sizes. Some follow that advice pre-flop and on the flop. However, when it comes to the river, many players give the strength of their hand away with their bet sizes.
They will usually bet big with their strong hands and bet smaller with their bluffs. You have to watch players to get these reads. You won’t get these reads if you are playing on multiple tables and you are not studying your opponent’s hands off the table.
Summary
The strategy that you use should be based on the reads you have on your opponent. You might have been told to mix your strategies up. However, at microstakes, a lot of players don’t adjust. Therefore, you don’t need to adjust until your opponents adjust.
Table 1: Summary of the Necessary Conditions to Use the Floating and Bluff-raising Strategies
There are 2 more points that I want to make.
Tight Players
You should probably fold on the flop against a tight player with a low c-bet%. These types of players are unlikely to be bluffing.
Calling Stations
You shouldn’t bluff calling stations. Therefore, fold your air hands against this player.
If you have a showdown value hand and you are in a way ahead way behind situation, you should try to get your hand to showdown as cheaply as possible.
There are 2 lines that you can use.
The first is the line of calling on the flop; checking back the turn if checked to; and checking back on the river. If the calling station bets on the turn, he will usually have a strong hand. In this case, you can fold.
Some calling stations do bluff on the river. Therefore, you should only use the above line if you have a read.
If you don’t have a read, you can use the following line. When the calling station checks on the turn, you can bet ½ pot on the turn. This should stop him from betting on the river with garbage. If he does bet on the river, you will have to fold.
So, it’s all about watching how your opponents play. If you can make the most of your showdown value hands and win with bluffs, your results will improve.