Hero In Position/With the Lead/Dry Board vs Tight Villain
We are in a single-raised pot against a tight player and we have the lead. We have a pair below top pair on the flop.
How do we play this hand?
Let’s start by looking at villain’s range.
Villain’s Range
When a tight player just calls a pre-flop raise, it usually means that he doesn’t have AA or KK in his range. This is because we would expect him to 3-bet with these. Some tight players will 3-bet with QQ and AK. However, we can’t be sure unless we have been watching our opponent.
It makes a big difference to your post-flop strategy if you know whether villain 3-bets with AK. However, we will be pessimistic and assume that villain has AK and AQ in his range.
Let’s look how this hand can play out.
Post-flop Play Analysis
Flop: Villain Donk Bets
The first possibility is that villain can donk bet. I’ve dealt in detail on the small donk bet in my article The Small Donk Bet is an Exploitative Strategy that the Poker Gurus Tried to Keep Secret
If a NIT puts in a large donk bet, you should fold. Villain doesn’t need to protect his hand from many cards on a dry ace-high board. A big donk bet from a NIT usually represents a set on a dry board.
Flop: Villain Checks
The most common situation, when you have the lead and are in position, is that villain will check to the pre-flop raiser.
There are 3 primary reasons why you might want to c-bet when a NIT checks and you have a weak hand.
Firstly, you may get immediate folds. While worse hands can’t call, you might get villain to fold hands that might benefit from a free card.
Secondly, weak hands are difficult to play and as such, you just want to win the pot without further complications.
Thirdly, if your opponent just calls, he is giving you information about the top of his range. Your bet should be small to get this information.
Combinatorics Analysis
On this flop, 5 pocket pairs between an 8 and a 2 will fold (30 combos).
The hands that will potentially call or raise are sets (6 combos), AK/AQ (24 combos) and QQ -99 (19 combos).
This adds up to 39 combos. This means that 30 combos will fold and 49 will call or raise. Therefore, villain should fold 38% of his hands.
How Many Barrels Should Hero Fire?
Prior to deciding how much to bet on the flop, you need to consider how many barrels that you plan to fire.
This depends on what you have observed about your opponent. When I observe a tight player, I look at when he folds. If I don’t see his cards, I estimate the following:
If he folds on the flop, I guess that he has folded unmade hands and weak pairs (ie pairs below middle pair).
If he folds on the turn, I assume that he folds pairs below top pair.
If he folds on the river, I assume that he has folded top pair combos, that don’t have the best kicker.
However, this will also depend on your table image. If a NIT sees you as a NIT, he is more likely to fold hands, such as top pair without the best kicker, on the river. If a NIT sees you as aggressive, he is more likely to hang in there with his top pair hands.
This isn’t always the case. Some NITs never adjust and keep folding to scary-looking bets. If your opponent doesn’t adjust, you don’t need to adjust either.
The above assumptions are estimates. However, it may be useful to barrel a tight player sometimes, just to get the information. The information may cost you money. However, if you are against a super-tight player, you might just keep barrelling him off top pair.
Street by Street Mathematical Analysis of Bet Sizes and Fold Equity
In this section, I will be using my Three Barrel Calculator compare some potential betting lines that you can use post-flop.
Let’s look at an example of a player, who will fold AQ but not AK on the river.
The Three Barrel Bluff
We will assume that our opponent is a player, who will worry that, when he has AQ, his opponent has AK or an even better hand.
Calculation 1: Dealt to Hero (9♠9♦) versus Villain (QQ-22/AK-AQ). Flop: A♥8♦2♠.
So, the calculation above is an example of a tight player, who will hang on to AK but fold AQ on the river. I will explain the numbers that I put into my barrel calculator. I have put 100 as the pot size once you get to the flop.
My website is for miscrostakes players. I often use the number 100 so that you can see what kinds of percentages, that we are talking about. Therefore, for the purposes of this article, let’s assume that there is $100 in the pot on the flop.
So, let’s look at what the numbers in the barrel calculator mean.
Total Combos are the number of combos that villain start with. There are 79 combos within the QQ-22/AK-AQ range.
Combos Fold refers to the combos that villain will fold to a bet. For example, I assume that he will fold all the pairs below middle pair (77-33) to a bet size of 50% of the pot on the flop. This adds up to 30 combos.
Combos Raise refers to the combos that villain will raise. I have put 6 combos of sets (88 and 22) in villain’s range. I assume that he will raise on the turn. Villain might wait until the river to raise with his sets. However, this is unlikely because the turn card usually puts a draw on the board. In this situation, most villains will try and get the money in before the river card hits.
Bet% is the size of your bet relative to the size of the pot. Therefore, a 50% bet percentage on the flop is ½ of the pot. The pot is $100. Therefore, your 50% flop bet would be $50.
Once you get to the turn, there will be $200 in the pot. A 75% bet size will be $150.
On the river, I am assuming that the 12 combos that will fold are AQ. I also assume that villain will call with AK.
The safe way to play the hand is to bet the flop and check/fold the turn.
Average Win/Loss is the amount that you win and lose. All win and loss amounts are relative to the size of the pot on the flop.
By betting on the flop and check/folding the turn, we make an average profit of 6.96 units in relation to the the flop pot size.
So, the size of the pot on the flop is 100. If this was $100, the average win by just betting on the flop would be $6.96.
However, if you have a read that your opponent is tight enough to fold AQ to 3 barrels, the best option is to go for 3 barrels.
By betting 3 barrels, you can expect to make an average profit of $17.09.
The Overbet Bluff
When we overbet the flop, we are expecting folds from the 30 combos of weak pars (77-33). In addition, we expect the 19 combos of pocket pairs below top pair (QQ-99) to fold on the flop.
This amounts to 49 folds from 79 combos.
Below you can see the calculation.
Calculation 2: Overbetting 120% on the Flop – Dealt to Hero (9♠9♦) versus Villain (QQ-22/AK-AQ). Flop: A♥8♦2♠.
When we overbet to 120% on the flop, we make an average of $16.46.
This is probably an underestimate as I can see a lot of villains folding their AQ to an overbet.
A very large flop bet makes tight players fear that you have a set.
Calculation 3 Overbetting 200% on the Flop – Dealt to Hero (9♠9♦) versus Villain (QQ-22/AK-AQ). Flop: A♥8♦2♠.
The 61 combos folding includes 12 combos of AQ, in addition to the 30 combos of weak pars (77-33) and the 19 combos of pocket pairs below top pair (QQ-99).
As you can see, the verdict is bet flop and check/fold turn. Importantly, our profits increase from the previous example.
The flop overbet of 200% wins and average of $31.65.
Again, versus a tight player, I think this number is an underestimate.
What if Villain has AJ in his Range?
If your opponent calls from the big blind, he may call with AJ. A tight player may fold AQ and AJ. However, it will be expensive if you are wrong.
The Triple Barrel Bluff
You need a strong read that your opponent is capable of folding AQ or AJ on the river to triple barrel.
Calculation 4: Dealt to Hero (9♠9♦) versus Villain (QQ-22/AK-AJ). Flop: A♥8♦2♠.
This is what the calculation looks like with AJ in villain’s range. The 24 folds on the river are combos of AQ and AJ. I am assuming that villain is a NIT, who will get scared by the third barrel.
You should note that double barrelling is not a profitable option.
In this hand, the triple barrel wins an average of $47.80 of the pot size on the flop.
You might get more folds on the flop than the number in the calculator. This is because a player, who plays AJ will often play KQ as well. Obviously, KQ will fold on the flop.
In the example, we bet 75% of the pot on the river. You could bet more and still be profitable. If you bet 150% on the river and villain folds AQ/AJ, you are close to break even.
However, the problem with the triple barrel, is that you need a good read that your opponent will fold some top pair combos on the river.
Can we find a better way to play the hand?
The Overbet Bluff
As mentioned above, you can triple barrel and overbet bluff on the river. In this section, I will look at the overbet bluff on the flop.
Let’s start with an overbet of double the pot size.
Calculation 5: Calculation 2: Overbetting 200% on the Flop – Dealt to Hero (9♠9♦) versus Villain (QQ-22/AK-AJ). Flop: A♥8♦2♠.
In the above analysis, I would expect a tight villain to fold AQ/AJ as well as all pairs below top pair, to a bet size that is 200% of the size of the pot on the flop. You don’t have to bet 200% of the pot to get the folds. You may be able to overbet by a smaller amount.
The overbet on the flop is slightly less profitable than the 3 barrel bluff in calculation 4.
The average win for the overbet and 3 barrel bluff is $40.66 and $54.40, respectively.
Against a tight player, I think the flop overbet would work more often than the 3 street bluff. Tight players think about the future more than loose players.
When a tight player with top pair, sees the overbet on the flop, he will be scared about the bet sizes that he might have to call on the turn and river.
Conclusion
You should use the 3 barrel and overbet bluffs carefully. The bluff value requires other players to believe you. Always be aware of your table image. Choose your target player wisely. You need to be good at reading the playing style of your opponents to get this right. I mean don’t try any of this against a calling station.
If you bluff too often, some players will start to call you down. However, some tight players will never call an overbet, unless they have a set. Therefore, you can use the overbet to bluff tight players off their hands.
Once you think that the other players don’t believe your overbets any longer and they will call you down, you can overbet against them when you have the goods. This is how you get action with your strong hands.