Hero IP/Without the Lead/Wet Board vs Tight Player
In this hand, villain is a tight player, who raised first in from UTG+1. Hero called on the button pre-flop. I’m using this as an example hand. You shouldn’t find yourself in this position often. As I have mentioned in other reference hands, you might just call with a pair of 9s (rather than 3-bet) if there is a showdown monkey in the blinds.
Villain’s Range
Villain is likely to have a tight range when raising pre-flop from UTG+1. Despite the tight range, villain has vulnerabilites on almost any flop. Low flops are bad for villain’s AK and AQ, while Ace-high and King-high flops give villain difficulty in getting his pocket pairs to showdown.
Let’s start by counting the combos that villain will almost never fold. His strong range 6 combos of AA, 12 combos of AK, 1 combo of A♥Q♥, 3 combos of KK and 3 combos of 88. That’s a total of 25 combos (which is 42.4% of his total combos).
Villain will fold cominations of AQ (15 combos) that aren’t A♥Q♥. This comes to 25.4% of villain’s combos.
His vulnerable range includes QQ-99, which is 19 combos. This means that 32.2% of villain’s combos may fold if put under pressure. Together with the combos of AQ, this adds up to 57.6% of villain’s range that will fold quite easily.
In this article, I will look at 2 scenarios. Firstly, I will examine the scenario where villain bets on the flop. Secondly, I will discuss the situation where villain checks on the flop.
Hero’s Hand
The hand is a weak showdown value hand. Bear in mind that hero has a backdoor straight draw.
Flop: Villain Bets
If a supertight NIT c-bets around ¾ pot, you should usually fold. You have a weak pair and you have called a pre-flop raise from a NIT, who has now c-bet. You can beat a bluff or a weak pair that the NIT turned into a bluff. You might be ahead of his pre-flop raising range. However, when this type of player c-bets on a wet flop, it looks like he has made a hand. If villain didn’t have a hand, he would be concerned that you have a made hand or a draw. As such, he is less likely to try to bluff on a flop like this.
Float, Bluff-raise or Fold versus a TAGfish
A TAGfish might c-bet with his whole range. If villain bets a size of ½ – ⅔ pot, on this flop, you could consider floating. This bet size wouldn’t convince me that my opponent has a hand that is better than AK.
If this type of villain had AA or a set on this flop, he would bet bigger. He would be betting for value. However, subconsciously, he would also be betting because her wants to end the hand. These players are driven by fear and therefore, often fail to extract money with their strong hands. This is especially the case on wet boards.
Floating is often a good strategy on wet flops against tight players because they tend to shut down if their c-bet is called and they have missed the flop or hit it weakly.
You should look at your opponent’s statistics. Specifically, you want to determine whether he has a high cbet% and high fold vs flop float%. If he does, you should considering floating.
In addition, our backdoor straight draw points more towards floating than bluff-raising.
If the turn card is a non-heart, that gives you an open-ended straight draw, you will have more equity when you barrel the turn.
However, a bet larger than ⅔ of the pot would look as though villain has a hand that he wants to protect.
Therefore, we would just fold if villain bets more than ⅔ of the pot.
Let’s assume that villain bet ⅔ of the pot on the flop. We need to work out whether we have enough fold equity to float. So, I’ve put some numbers into the Floating Calculator.
Even though, I have said that villain is unlikely to bet less than ¾ of the pot with a set or AA, I will include these combos in our calculations. This gives us room for error and allows us to look at the worst case scenario.
We need 57.23% folds from villain to break even and we only have 57.6%. There doesn’t seem to be much in it. Bluff-raising will have a similar fold percentage requirement.
However, let’s consider what will happen if the turn or river card is a heart. If villain checks, he will now fold AK combos that don’t have a heart. This will be 9 more combos that will fold. On the flip side, a non-heart ace will mess up our chances of getting AQ to fold, unless we can convince villain that we have AK or the river card is a heart.
There are more hearts than aces in the deck which works in our favour. In addition, if the turn card is an ace, we should be able to get villain’s combos of QQ-99 to fold to a small bet.
If you float and villain checks on the turn, you should bet ⅔ of the pot on any turn card. You know that you should get around 50% folds from previous examples. It is better if the turn card is a heart as he may even fold AK. That’s if he doesn’t have the A♥.
In this case, if we overbet the pot, villain may even fold AKo with A♥.
However, let’s look at all the situations that can occur.
The turn card is a low brick eg 4♣ (Occurs around 40% of the time)
If the turn card is a random low card, such as the 4♣, we can just bet ⅔ as planned. This should get AQ and QQ-99 to fold.
If villain calls your turn bet, he has AK or A♥Q♥. If the river is a brick, you should fold to a bet and check if villain checks. It will be difficult to get folds from AK.
If the river completes the draw and villain checks or puts in a blocking bet, you can consider overbetting to get AK to fold. However, overbetting requires all the variables (apart from your hole cards) to be in your favour, including the player type and your table image.
If you have been overbetting a lot, this may not be the right time to overbet. On the other hand, if your opponent does not adjust to other players’ strategies, it might still be a good time to overbet.
The turn card is a high card eg 10♣ (Occurs around 26% of the time)
This puts 3 more sets in villain’s range. We are still getting 50% folds. Therefore, ⅔ of the pot will be profitable. However, we are not getting the 57.23% folds that we require from the whole float move.
However, we can still bet on the turn, when a 10 or a J is the turn card. The 10 gives us an open-ended straight draw and the J gives us a gutshot. In addition, a 9 on the river, may be an out. Villain’s calling range will be AK (12 combos), A♥Q♥ (1 combo) and possibly AA (6 combos). If villain has a set (9 combos), he will probably raise now.
The breakdown of the hands on the turn works out as follows:
Villain folds 50%
Villain Raises 16%
Villain calls 34%
A gutshot and our 2 outs to hit a set on the river give us a 14.2% chance of winning the hand. An open ended straight draw plus 2 outs to hit a set would give us a 23% chance of winning the hand. We are still below the required percentages. However, we have implied odds when we hit our hand on the river.
The turn card is a non-heart Ace eg A♣ (Occurs around 6% of the time)
If villain bets, we have to fold. If villain checks, we can bet ½ pot and get QQ-99 to fold. We would be getting 19 combos to fold. With the A♣ acting as a blocker to villain’s Ax combos, the 19 combos would work out as 38.8% folds. We need 33% folds to break even.
Although the turn bet would be profitable, the whole float will make a loss in this case.
The turn card is the A♥ (Occurs around 2% of the time)
This is a situation where we have to work out the combos in villain’s range that fold.
We will still count sets in villain’s range, although we decided his flop bet didn’t look as if he had a set.
There will now be 3 sets in villain’s range (AA, KK, 88), which are 9 combos. AK has hit 2 pair, which is 9 combos.
AQ has hit top pair (12 combos). However, I think that villain will fold AQ to a big bet, unless he has the Q♥. Therefore, 9 combos of AQ should fold.
Then, there are the pairs QQ-99, which is still 19 combos. The 3 combos of QQ, with a heart will have the nut flush draw. Therefore, it will take a big bet to get villain to fold these combos.
The hands that are almost never going away are sets (9 combos). The 2 pair (9 combos) hands may stick around as well.
If we bet ½ pot, 16 combos of QQ-99 will fold. That is 32.6% of villain’s range. We need 33% of folds here. Therefore, we don’t get enough folds.
What if we bet big here as if we are protecting a flush. If we bet the pot, there isn’t a drawing hand that would have the odds to call. Even sets don’t have the odds. I would expect a microstakes player to draw to a full house with a set at any cost.
If villain believes that we have a flush, 40 combos should fold and 9 combos will call. That’s 81% of villain’s combos. However, we would have to bet more than the pot here. If we bet 125% of the pot, that should get all combos, apart from sets, to fold.
The Turn Card is a High Heart eg 10♥ (Occurs around 6% of the time)
There will be 9 combos of sets in villain’s range (KK, TT, 88), that are never folding. A♥Q♥ has hit the nuts, which is 1 combo.
There will still be 6 combos of AA. Of these, 3 will have the A♥. There will be 12 combos of AK. Of these, 3 will have the A♥.
There will be 15 combos of AQ. Of these 3 will have the A♥.
The 13 combos of QQ-JJ/99 will fold easily.
If your opponent is tight, he should fold everything apart from sets and the nut flush to an overbet. If he is scared that you have already made your flush, he knows he hasn’t got the odds to draw.
Therefore, a 125% overbet would get 82.1% folds.
The Turn Card is a Low Heart eg 5♥ (Occurs around 10%)
This is more favourable to you compared to a high heart on the board. Villain will have 3 less combos of sets in his range. A♥Q♥ has hit the nuts, which is 1 combo.
A tight villain should fold everything else (which adds uo to 88.1% of combos) to a 125% overbet here.
The Turn Card is a King (Occurs about 6% of the time)
In this case, villain has 1 combo of quad kings and 3 combos of sets (88) in his range. He has 8 combos AK, which gives him trip kings. His other strong hands are the 6 combos of AA.
He should fold the 19 combos of QQ-99 and the 16 combos of AQ, once the board has paired.
That adds up to 66% folds, which is above the 57.23% requirement.
Conclusion for this Section: Generally, FOLD on the Flop
I have covered 96% of the possibilities for the turn card. The only possibility that I haven’t covered is when the turn card is a 9, which would give us a set. This will happen around 4% of the time.
The problem is that there is a lot of reliance on villain folding hands on the turn, that he might be attached to. For example, AA is a strong hand which villain might not like to fold, although it is not a strong hand on a board with 3 of a suit on it. Many microstakes players find it difficult to fold AA. It’s as if they believe that they have the moral right to win with this hand. Similarly, if villain has 2 pair, he might have trouble folding even when there are 3 hearts on the board. He might hang in there and draw to his 4 outs.
Generally, I say fold. However, there are other factors to be taken into consideration. For example, a pair of 9s has a backdoor straight draw on the flop. This would make me lean towards floating. If you hit your straight on the river and villain has a strong hand, you will get good implied odds.
Against my opponent’s 5.5% range, floating relies on my opponent believing that my overbet represents a strong hand. Therefore, I would ask myself, several questions.
Have I been overbetting at the table recently? If I have been overbetting, players are less likely to believe that my overbet represents a strong hand. This would point towards folding on the flop.
On the other hand, if I have been playing tight, this would make me lean towards floating. In this case, my opponent is more likely to believe that my overbet represents a strong hand.
Another question is, does my opponent play on a lot of tables? If he does, he is less likely to be paying attention to each hand at the table that he is playing on. Therefore, I may have overbet against other opponents. However, if I haven’t overbet against this particular opponent, he might not have noticed that I have been overbetting a lot.
How tight is my opponent? There are some players, who are so tight that they will keep folding to aggression. If I knew that I was playing a supertight player, I would still float.
It’s a long-winded way of coming to this conclusion. However, you have to work these types of situations out.
In this example, villain is only playing a 5.5% range. If his range was 9%, with the extra combos being the low pocket pairs, this would be an easy float or bluff-raise. However, if his range is just 9% and the additional hands are broadway combos, it is more difficult to float on an ace- or king-high flop.
So, there is some useful information here. If you see a player, who plays low pocket pairs, you should lean more towards floating or bluff-raising.
If you see a player, who plays more broadway combos, you should bluff-raise against them on low flops. Bluff-raising is better than floating in this situation because any high turn card will mean that you can’t bet on the turn.
Flop: Villain Checks
So, let’s go back to flop and decide what we should do if villain checks on the K♥8♦7♥ flop.
When villain checks, I would assume that he has QQ at best. I wouldn’t expect a tight villain to risk a free card coming off unless he has a pair lower than top pair or A♥Q♥. Therefore, you should bet ½ of the pot. If he raises, it means that he has a strong hand and you should fold. If he calls, it looks like he has a showdown value hand (such as QQ – JJ) or the nut flush draw, A♥Q♥.
At this point, you know that a tight villain has not got a strong made hand and therefore, a second barrel should be profitable.
As such, you should bet on the turn, whether or not the draw completes. Your barrel size should be on the large side eg ¾ of the pot. If villain has QQ-99, he will have too much to worry about to stay in the hand.
A turn card, that is a Q, J or T will reduce the number of combos that villain will fold. However, it is still profitable to bet on the turn. Let’s say that the turn card is a J. Villain will have 1 combo of A♥Q♥ and 3 combos of JJ. His combos of QQ, TT and 99 will add up to 13. Therefore, you will still be getting 76% folds on the turn.
The turn card is a non-heart
If you bet when the turn is a brick and villain calls, you shouldn’t put any more money into the pot. You put him on A♥Q♥ or weak pairs on the flop. If he had QQ-JJ, these should fold on the turn. Therefore, you are up against A♥Q♥ or a strong hand. Although I said that villain wouldn’t check a strong hand on a draw-heavy flop, you sometimes have to accept that you got your read wrong.
If his A♥Q♥ misses the river card, he should check and you can check back and win the pot. If the river card is a non-heart and villain bets, he is not bluffing. These types of players do not bluff into a player, who has bet on the flop and river. They only bluff if you show weakness.
The turn card is a heart
If the turn is a heart and villain bets, you should obviously fold. You don’t have much of a hand and a passive player has shown aggression on the turn after acting weak on the flop.
If villain checks when the third heart hits the board on the turn, he may be concerned about both the overcard and the draw. He could still have A♥Q♥. However, if he is getting a bad price to draw with a single heart, he might fold a pair, such as QQ or JJ with a heart. Therefore, you will bet ¾ of the pot.
From villain’s point of view, he is getting a bad price to draw and could be drawing dead to the A♥. Obviously, you will fold if villain raises this bet as he is representing A♥Q♥. If he calls your turn bet and checks on a river brick, you should check back. We took AK or better out of his range because he checked and called a small bet on the flop on a wet board when he had the lead. We assume that villain would fold his weak pairs on the turn. Therefore, he can only have A♥Q♥, although it would be unusual for this player-type to slow play such a hand.
If the river is a heart, you should fold to a bet and check if villain checks. As before, our reads suggest that villain can only have A♥Q♥, in this sitution.
Conclusion
This particular hand is tricky to work out. This makes them good hands to plan out before you get to the table. Thse types of situations occur often. If you have studied the hand, you will have an advantage over most microstakes players.
Most microstakes players don’t study hands. They just make decisions as they play the hand. If you have worked out what could happen in each scenario and how you will respond, you won’t have any surprises in a hand such as this one. You will just play the hand as you have planned.
By contrast, your average microstakes opponent will be driven by emotion when scare cards land on the turn and river.